Dice Rollings Tips - Basics, Bonuses, Player v. Player, and Rolling Techniques

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CDavis7M
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Dice Rollings Tips - Basics, Bonuses, Player v. Player, and Rolling Techniques

Post by CDavis7M »

Dice rolling is a pretty big part of Middle-Earth CCG. I like it the variability and excitement it adds to the game. And I'm sure most of you are aware of the 2D6 probability curve, where rolling a 7 is 6x as likely as rolling a 12 or a [-me_cp-][-me_cp-]. But maybe some haven't considered the variety of other factors that affect dice rolls. I got interested in this when a local player mentioned in passing that Lucky Strike sucks compared to Risky Blow. Turns out, it does. But first, let's start with the basics.

Also, please let me know if any of the math is off or if I missed something.

Statistics for rolls using two 6-sided dice

When rolling dice, you can determine the likelihood of rolling a particular number based on how many combinations of that number are possible. And from these 36 different combinations (6*6), we can determine the likelihoods below (rounded to the integer).

36 Possible 2D6 Combinations:

1 combination: [-me_cp-][-me_cp-] (1 and 1)
2 combinations: 3 (1 and 2; 2 and 1)
3 combinations: 4 (1 and 3; 3 and 1; 2 and 2)
4 combinations: 5 (1 and 4; 4 and 1; 2 and 3; 3 and 2) and
5 combinations: 6 (1 and 5; 5 and 1; 2 and 4; 4 and 2; 3 and 3)
6 combinations: 7 (1 and 6; 6 and 1; 2 and 5; 5 and 2; 3 and 4; 4 and 3)
5 combinations: 8 (2 and 6; 6 and 2; 3 and 5; 5 and 3; 4 and 4)
4 combinations: 9 (3 and 6; 6 and 3; 4 and 5; 5 and 4)
3 combinations: 10 (4 and 6; 6 and 4; 5 and 5)
2 combinations: 11 (5 and 6; 6 and 5)
1 combination: 12 (6 and 6)

2D6 Likelihoods:

100% chance of rolling [-me_cp-][-me_cp-] or more; or 12 or less
97% chance of rolling 3 or more; or 11 or less
92% chance of rolling 4 or more; or 10 or less
83% chance of rolling 5 or more; or 9 or less
72% chance of rolling 6 or more; or 8 or less
58% chance of rolling 7 or more; or 7 or less
42% chance of rolling 8 or more; or 6 or less
28% chance of rolling 9 or more; or 5 or less
17% chance of rolling 10 or more; or 4 or less
8% chance of rolling 11 or more; or 3 or less
3% chance of rolling 12 or more; or [-me_cp-][-me_cp-] or less

Dice Rolling Bonuses

Certain cards give dice rolling bonuses. For example, Risky Blow gives +3 to prowess and -1 to body. Lucky Strike gives you two rolls. Swift Strokes gives two rolls at +1. But how good are these bonuses? Well, we can determine the amount that they improve the likelihood using Bernoulli Trials. This math that you forgot in college allows you to determine the likelihood of an event over a number of trials given the likelihood of success in a single trial. Note that I say "rolling" but I'm talking about the end result of the roll, not the numbers printed on the dice.

Two rolls of 2D6 - Lucky Strike, Wizard's Test

100% chance of rolling [-me_cp-][-me_cp-] or more
99% chance of rolling 3 or more (vs 97% for 2D6)
99% chance of rolling 4 or more (vs 92% for 2D6)
97% chance of rolling 5 or more (vs 83% for 2D6)
92% chance of rolling 6 or more (vs 72% for 2D6)
83% chance of rolling 7 or more (vs 58% for 2D6)
66% chance of rolling 8 or more (vs 42% for 2D6)
48% chance of rolling 9 or more (vs 28% for 2D6)
31% chance of rolling 10 or more (vs 17% for 2D6)
16% chance of rolling 11 or more (vs 8% for 2D6)
6% chance of rolling 12 or more (vs 3% for 2D6)

Two rolls of 2D6 +1 - Swift Strokes

100% chance of rolling [-me_cp-][-me_cp-] or more
100% chance of rolling 3 or more (vs 99% for 2x 2D6)
99% chance of rolling 4 or more (vs 99% for 2x 2D6)
99% chance of rolling 5 or more (vs 97% for 2x 2D6)
97% chance of rolling 6 or more (vs 92% for 2x 2D6)
92% chance of rolling 7 or more (vs 83% for 2x 2D6)
83% chance of rolling 8 or more (vs 66% for 2x 2D6)
66% chance of rolling 9 or more (vs 48% for 2x 2D6)
48% chance of rolling 10 or more (vs 31% for 2x 2D6)
31% chance of rolling 11 or more (vs 16% for 2x 2D6)
16% chance of rolling 12 or more (vs 6% for 2x 2D6)
6% chance of rolling 13 or more (vs 0% for 2x 2D6)

One roll at +3 - Risky Blow, Block, Dodge

100% chance of rolling [-me_cp-][-me_cp-] or more
100% chance of rolling 3 or more (vs 100% for 2x 2D6 +1) (vs 99% for 2x 2D6)
100% chance of rolling 4 or more (vs 99% for 2x 2D6 +1) (vs 99% for 2x 2D6)
100% chance of rolling 5 or more (vs 99% for 2x 2D6 +1) (vs 97% for 2x 2D6)
97% chance of rolling 6 or more (vs 97% for 2x 2D6 +1) (vs 92% for 2x 2D6)
92% chance of rolling 7 or more (vs 92% for 2x 2D6 +1) (vs 83% for 2x 2D6)
83% chance of rolling 8 or more (vs 83% for 2x 2D6 +1) (vs 66% for 2x 2D6)
72% chance of rolling 9 or more (vs 66% for 2x 2D6 +1) (vs 48% for 2x 2D6)
58% chance of rolling 10 or more (vs 48% for 2x 2D6 +1) (vs 31% for 2x 2D6)
42% chance of rolling 11 or more (vs 31% for 2x 2D6 +1) (vs 16% for 2x 2D6)
28% chance of rolling 12 or more (vs 16% for 2x 2D6 +1) (vs 6% for 2x 2D6)
17% chance of rolling 13 or more (vs 6% for 2x 2D6 +1) (vs 0% for 2x 2D6)
8% chance of rolling 14 or more (vs 0% for 2x 2D6 +1) (vs 0% for 2x 2D6)
3% chance of rolling 15 or more (vs 0% for 2x 2D6 +1) (vs 0% for 2x 2D6)

So here you can see that Risky Blow with 1 roll at +3 is still better than Swift Strokes with 2 rolls at +1. And Lucky Strike is even worse. Of course, the draw back is that Risky Blow reduces your body by 1. Block is essentially +3 if you are trying to stay untapped.

Adversarial Dice Rolling - Company vs Company Combat and Influencing Away

In some situations you may need to roll off against your opponent. This can happen in Company vs Company Combat, Influencing your opponents resources, using Agents to influence, and in Riddling attempts. The statistics are a little different here because you are rolling your own 2D6 vs your opponent's 2D6. So there are 36 * 36 possibilities. These statistics just show pure dice rollings, and if you have any advantages you can go up or down the scale to see the difference. These statistics show the likelihood of losing or winning a roll by a certain amount, or doing better than that (e.g., rolling higher).

Lose by 10 or better - 100%
Lose by 9 or better - 99.92%
Lose by 8 or better - 99.61%
Lose by 7 or better - 98.64%
Lose by 6 or better - 97.30%
Lose by 5 or better - 94.60%
Lose by 4 or better - 90.28%
Lose by 3 or better - 84.10%
Lose by 2 or better - 76.08%
Lose by 1 or better - 66.44%
Tie or better - 55.63%
Beat by 1 or better - 44.37%
Beat by 2 or better - 33.56%
Beat by 3 or better - 23.92%
Beat by 4 or better - 15.90%
Beat by 5 or better - 9.72%
Beat by 6 or better - 5.40%
Beat by 7 or better - 2.70%
Beat by 8 or better - 1.16%
Beat by 9 or better - 0.39%
Beat by 10 or better - 0.08%

As you can see, it is very unlikely to roll much worse or much better than your opponent. This is why having just a few more points of GI can be really helpful in preventing influence attempts.

Or, in company vs company combat, The Witch-King has 9 prowess compared to Gandalf's 6 prowess, meaning that The Witch-King's player has a 76% chance of wounding Gandalf (lose by 2 or better). If The Witch-King plays Swift Strokes, then there is a 97% chance of wounding Gandalf (two Bernoulli trials at lose by 3 or better).

Or, when influencing with Agents, you get +4 when influencing a faction at the agent's home site, and the faction number is reduced to 0 (usually 7-9). At this point, you have a 12 points advantage in rolling, and the difference will be left to your agent's DI vs your opponents GI. Still, 2 DI for your agent vs a generous 8 GI for your opponent, with your roll at +12, almost guarantees success. And you will likely be getting a bonus from a card effect on top of what was discussed.

Rolling Techniques

Generally, I try to roll really high in combat and for corruption checks. But see what works for you.
Last edited by CDavis7M on Sat Apr 06, 2019 9:35 pm, edited 4 times in total.

User avatar
Yegor
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Location: Dnipro, Ukraine

Re: Dice Rollings Tips - Basics, Bonuses, Player v. Player, and Rolling Techniques

Post by Yegor »

Actually, it's all much easier. The chance is always the same with any roll - 50:50. You either roll what you need or not. [-me_cp-]

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CDavis7M
Posts: 1488
Joined: Fri Jul 20, 2018 3:10 am
Location: California

Re: Dice Rollings Tips - Basics, Bonuses, Player v. Player, and Rolling Techniques

Post by CDavis7M »

Interesting fallacy! But I prefer to improve my chance beyond 50:50 by saving my bad rolls for automatic-passes.

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