**7**is 6x as likely as rolling a

**12**or a . But maybe some haven't considered the variety of other factors that affect dice rolls. I got interested in this when a local player mentioned in passing that

**sucks compared to**

*Lucky Strike***. Turns out, it does. But first, let's start with the basics.**

*Risky Blow*Also, please let me know if any of the math is off or if I missed something.

**Statistics for rolls using two 6-sided dice**

When rolling dice, you can determine the likelihood of rolling a particular number based on how many combinations of that number are possible. And from these 36 different combinations (6*6), we can determine the likelihoods below (rounded to the integer).

36 Possible 2D6 Combinations:

1 combination: (1 and 1)

2 combinations:

**3**(1 and 2; 2 and 1)

3 combinations:

**4**(1 and 3; 3 and 1; 2 and 2)

4 combinations:

**5**(1 and 4; 4 and 1; 2 and 3; 3 and 2) and

5 combinations:

**6**(1 and 5; 5 and 1; 2 and 4; 4 and 2; 3 and 3)

6 combinations:

**7**(1 and 6; 6 and 1; 2 and 5; 5 and 2; 3 and 4; 4 and 3)

5 combinations:

**8**(2 and 6; 6 and 2; 3 and 5; 5 and 3; 4 and 4)

4 combinations:

**9**(3 and 6; 6 and 3; 4 and 5; 5 and 4)

3 combinations:

**10**(4 and 6; 6 and 4; 5 and 5)

2 combinations:

**11**(5 and 6; 6 and 5)

1 combination:

**12**(6 and 6)

2D6 Likelihoods:

**100%**chance of rolling or more; or

**12**or less

**97%**chance of rolling

**3**or more; or

**11**or less

**92%**chance of rolling

**4**or more; or

**10**or less

**83%**chance of rolling

**5**or more; or

**9**or less

**72%**chance of rolling

**6**or more; or

**8**or less

**58%**chance of rolling

**7**or more; or

**7**or less

**42%**chance of rolling

**8**or more; or

**6**or less

**28%**chance of rolling

**9**or more; or

**5**or less

**17%**chance of rolling

**10**or more; or

**4**or less

**8%**chance of rolling

**11**or more; or

**3**or less

**3%**chance of rolling

**12**or more; or or less

**Dice Rolling Bonuses**

Certain cards give dice rolling bonuses. For example, Risky Blow gives +3 to prowess and -1 to body. Lucky Strike gives you two rolls. Swift Strokes gives two rolls at +1. But how good are these bonuses? Well, we can determine the amount that they improve the likelihood using Bernoulli Trials. This math that you forgot in college allows you to determine the likelihood of an event over a number of trials given the likelihood of success in a single trial. Note that I say "rolling" but I'm talking about the end result of the roll, not the numbers printed on the dice.

Two rolls of 2D6 -

*Lucky Strike*,

*Wizard's Test*

**100%**chance of rolling or more

**99%**chance of rolling

**3**or more (vs 97% for 2D6)

**99%**chance of rolling

**4**or more (vs 92% for 2D6)

**97%**chance of rolling

**5**or more (vs 83% for 2D6)

**92%**chance of rolling

**6**or more (vs 72% for 2D6)

**83%**chance of rolling

**7**or more (vs 58% for 2D6)

**66%**chance of rolling

**8**or more (vs 42% for 2D6)

**48%**chance of rolling

**9**or more (vs 28% for 2D6)

**31%**chance of rolling

**10**or more (vs 17% for 2D6)

**16%**chance of rolling

**11**or more (vs 8% for 2D6)

**6%**chance of rolling

**12**or more (vs 3% for 2D6)

Two rolls of 2D6 +1 -

*Swift Strokes*

**100%**chance of rolling or more

**100%**chance of rolling

**3**or more (vs 99% for 2x 2D6)

**99%**chance of rolling

**4**or more (vs 99% for 2x 2D6)

**99%**chance of rolling

**5**or more (vs 97% for 2x 2D6)

**97%**chance of rolling

**6**or more (vs 92% for 2x 2D6)

**92%**chance of rolling

**7**or more (vs 83% for 2x 2D6)

**83%**chance of rolling

**8**or more (vs 66% for 2x 2D6)

**66%**chance of rolling

**9**or more (vs 48% for 2x 2D6)

**48%**chance of rolling

**10**or more (vs 31% for 2x 2D6)

**31%**chance of rolling

**11**or more (vs 16% for 2x 2D6)

**16%**chance of rolling

**12**or more (vs 6% for 2x 2D6)

**6%**chance of rolling

**13**or more (vs 0% for 2x 2D6)

One roll at +3 -

*Risky Blow*,

*Block*,

*Dodge*

**100%**chance of rolling or more

**100%**chance of rolling

**3**or more (vs 100% for 2x 2D6 +1) (vs 99% for 2x 2D6)

**100%**chance of rolling

**4**or more (vs 99% for 2x 2D6 +1) (vs 99% for 2x 2D6)

**100%**chance of rolling

**5**or more (vs 99% for 2x 2D6 +1) (vs 97% for 2x 2D6)

**97%**chance of rolling

**6**or more (vs 97% for 2x 2D6 +1) (vs 92% for 2x 2D6)

**92%**chance of rolling

**7**or more (vs 92% for 2x 2D6 +1) (vs 83% for 2x 2D6)

**83%**chance of rolling

**8**or more (vs 83% for 2x 2D6 +1) (vs 66% for 2x 2D6)

**72%**chance of rolling

**9**or more (vs 66% for 2x 2D6 +1) (vs 48% for 2x 2D6)

**58%**chance of rolling

**10**or more (vs 48% for 2x 2D6 +1) (vs 31% for 2x 2D6)

**42%**chance of rolling

**11**or more (vs 31% for 2x 2D6 +1) (vs 16% for 2x 2D6)

**28%**chance of rolling

**12**or more (vs 16% for 2x 2D6 +1) (vs 6% for 2x 2D6)

**17%**chance of rolling

**13**or more (vs 6% for 2x 2D6 +1) (vs 0% for 2x 2D6)

**8%**chance of rolling

**14**or more (vs 0% for 2x 2D6 +1) (vs 0% for 2x 2D6)

**3%**chance of rolling

**15**or more (vs 0% for 2x 2D6 +1) (vs 0% for 2x 2D6)

So here you can see that

*Risky Blow*with 1 roll at +3 is still better than

*Swift Strokes*with 2 rolls at +1. And

*Lucky Strike*is even worse. Of course, the draw back is that

*Risky Blow*reduces your body by 1.

*Block*is essentially +3 if you are trying to stay untapped.

**Adversarial Dice Rolling - Company vs Company Combat and Influencing Away**

In some situations you may need to roll off against your opponent. This can happen in Company vs Company Combat, Influencing your opponents resources, using Agents to influence, and in Riddling attempts. The statistics are a little different here because you are rolling your own 2D6 vs your opponent's 2D6. So there are 36 * 36 possibilities. These statistics just show pure dice rollings, and if you have any advantages you can go up or down the scale to see the difference. These statistics show the likelihood of losing or winning a roll by a certain amount, or doing better than that (e.g., rolling higher).

Lose by 10 or better - 100%

Lose by 9 or better - 99.92%

Lose by 8 or better - 99.61%

Lose by 7 or better - 98.64%

Lose by 6 or better - 97.30%

Lose by 5 or better - 94.60%

Lose by 4 or better - 90.28%

Lose by 3 or better - 84.10%

Lose by 2 or better - 76.08%

Lose by 1 or better - 66.44%

Tie or better - 55.63%

Beat by 1 or better - 44.37%

Beat by 2 or better - 33.56%

Beat by 3 or better - 23.92%

Beat by 4 or better - 15.90%

Beat by 5 or better - 9.72%

Beat by 6 or better - 5.40%

Beat by 7 or better - 2.70%

Beat by 8 or better - 1.16%

Beat by 9 or better - 0.39%

Beat by 10 or better - 0.08%

As you can see, it is very unlikely to roll much worse or much better than your opponent. This is why having just a few more points of GI can be really helpful in preventing influence attempts.

Or, in company vs company combat,

*The Witch-King*has 9 prowess compared to

*Gandalf's*6 prowess, meaning that The Witch-King's player has a 76% chance of wounding

*Gandalf*(lose by 2 or better). If

*The Witch-King*plays

*Swift Strokes*, then there is a 97% chance of wounding

*Gandalf*(two Bernoulli trials at lose by 3 or better).

Or, when influencing with Agents, you get +4 when influencing a faction at the agent's home site, and the faction number is reduced to 0 (usually 7-9). At this point, you have a 12 points advantage in rolling, and the difference will be left to your agent's DI vs your opponents GI. Still, 2 DI for your agent vs a generous 8 GI for your opponent, with your roll at +12, almost guarantees success. And you will likely be getting a bonus from a card effect on top of what was discussed.

**Rolling Techniques**

Generally, I try to roll really high in combat and for corruption checks. But see what works for you.